By Chief Editor Daniel M. Raines
November 8, 2025
A Paradise Under Pressure
For generations, Florida has sold itself as a dream — the land of endless summer, white sand, and the promise of an affordable life under the sun. But in 2025, that dream seems to be fading for many who once chased it. A new statewide poll from Florida Atlantic University’s Business and Economic Polling Initiative (BEPI) reveals a startling shift: nearly half of Floridians say they are “seriously considering” moving out of the state due to the rising cost of living.
It’s a stunning figure for a state that has long been synonymous with growth. For much of the last decade, Florida topped migration charts as families, retirees, and remote workers fled higher-cost cities elsewhere. Now, with insurance premiums soaring, housing prices outpacing wages, and inflation eating into every paycheck, many lifelong residents are quietly wondering if the Sunshine State still shines for them.
“The ‘moving consideration’ rate is striking,” said Eric Levy, assistant director of FAU’s BEPI. “It suggests that while Florida continues to attract new residents, many current ones feel squeezed enough to think about leaving.”
The Financial Squeeze
The FAU poll found that 70% of Floridians report feeling financial strain at least occasionally, and 43% say they live paycheck to paycheck. Those numbers suggest that even among the state’s middle class, the margin for comfort is razor-thin.
“For most Floridians, financial security feels one expense away from collapse,” said Monica Escaleras, director of the BEPI. “Many of those surveyed attributed the high cost of living to not being able to save more.”
While inflation has cooled from its pandemic-era peak, its ripple effects continue to distort household economics. Groceries, utilities, and insurance costs have risen disproportionately in Florida compared to the national average. Property insurance — once a background cost of homeownership — has become a headline issue. Some insurers have pulled out of the state altogether, forcing homeowners into higher-cost alternatives.
At the same time, the state’s once-notorious traffic of new residents from northern states hasn’t slowed enough to ease demand. That means competition for homes remains fierce even as affordability erodes.
The Housing Dilemma
If there’s one statistic that defines Florida’s affordability crisis, it’s housing. According to BEPI data, 80% of Floridians are concerned about housing affordability, and nearly half are “very concerned.” The reasons aren’t hard to find.
Realtor.com’s latest market trends show that Florida’s housing market has experienced the steepest slowdown in the nation over the past few months. But “slowdown” doesn’t necessarily mean “cheaper.” The median list price in Miami — one of the state’s most in-demand metros — was $499,999 in October 2025, about $76,000 higher than the national median. Homes are also taking longer to sell, with listings in Miami sitting on the market 13 days longer than a year earlier.
What’s most telling is that even with more homes available — inventory has climbed above pre-pandemic levels in many regions — affordability hasn’t improved much for locals. Rising interest rates and insurance costs continue to neutralize any potential price relief.
The BEPI survey found that 36% of respondents cited high home prices as the biggest barrier to homeownership, followed by 15% who pointed to rising interest rates and 11% who said down payments were the main obstacle.
Despite that, the desire to own a home hasn’t died out. Three out of four Floridians (75%) still view homeownership as a vital part of the American dream. But belief and reality are now two different things. Only about 51% of Floridians feel at least “somewhat confident” they could buy a home today, and a striking 80% say it’s harder now to become a homeowner than it was five years ago.
When the Dream Becomes a Struggle
For many, the emotional toll of rising costs has replaced the excitement that once came with Florida living. A state once marketed for its laid-back lifestyle now feels, to some, like an endurance test of budgeting and sacrifice.
“Florida has become a tale of two markets,” said Cara Ameer, a broker with Coldwell Banker Vanguard Realty. “One for the uber-wealthy, and one where many longtime owners — especially retirees and working families — have sensed the shift in affordability on everything, from housing and insurance to condo association dues.”
The divide Ameer describes mirrors the larger pattern seen across the country: those with significant assets have weathered inflation far more easily than those on fixed or hourly incomes. In Florida, the influx of wealthy buyers — often cash-heavy transplants from New York, California, or Chicago — has helped keep property values high, but it’s also distorted the local economy.
That’s particularly tough on younger residents and families, who face steep rent hikes and dwindling opportunities for first-time homeownership.
The Affordability Paradox
Interestingly, despite the growing dissatisfaction, Florida’s population is not declining. In fact, net migration remains positive — newcomers continue to outnumber those leaving.
“When it comes to housing markets, what matters is net population movement,” said Ana Bozovic, founder of Analytics Miami. “While some Floridians may be considering a move, the inflow of new residents continues to far outweigh the outflow. We are not bracing for an exodus. We are preparing for the next inflow.”
That paradox — a state both growing and groaning — reveals the complex nature of Florida’s affordability crisis. Many newcomers arrive from even higher-cost states and see Florida as relatively affordable. Meanwhile, longtime residents who’ve experienced price increases firsthand feel the opposite.
The result is a kind of economic whiplash: two Floridas, coexisting uneasily.
The Price of Popularity
Florida’s affordability challenge didn’t emerge overnight. The pandemic-era boom set off a chain reaction of price hikes that never fully reversed. When remote work became widespread in 2020, Florida’s combination of sunshine, tax advantages, and open space turned it into one of the country’s most desirable destinations.
Home prices soared as demand far exceeded supply. For a while, the state could absorb the influx — builders ramped up new construction, and developers expanded rapidly. But by 2023 and 2024, as mortgage rates climbed and insurance premiums exploded, many of those same builders began to slow projects, unable to keep pace with rising costs.
Now, as inflation stabilizes but prices remain sticky, Florida’s popularity has created a feedback loop: the very demand that built its boom is now fueling the affordability strain that may push some residents away.
The Retirement Myth Revisited
Florida’s identity as a retirement haven is also shifting. According to Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com, the state’s affordability squeeze has hit older residents particularly hard.
“For retirees or fixed-income residents, the squeeze is especially acute,” Jones explained. “What was once considered a cost-efficient move south is now far less attainable.”
With property taxes rising, insurance costs doubling or tripling, and health care expenses mounting, many retirees find that their fixed incomes no longer stretch as far as they did a decade ago. Some are downsizing; others are leaving altogether.
Cracks in the Dream
What makes Florida’s situation unique is the speed of the shift. In a matter of years, the state has transformed from one of America’s most aspirational migration destinations to a case study in affordability whiplash.
And yet, the story isn’t just economic. It’s emotional. The “Sunshine Squeeze,” as some have called it, touches identity — the sense of home, security, and belonging. Floridians who’ve spent their lives in the state now wrestle with the possibility of uprooting not because they want to, but because they feel they have to.
According to the BEPI poll, nearly 50% of residents are seriously considering leaving. That number includes both homeowners and renters. The motivations vary — some cite skyrocketing rent, others insurance, still others the cost of groceries or utilities — but the underlying sentiment is the same: living comfortably in Florida has become increasingly difficult.
The Market in Transition
Realtor.com’s data paints a picture of a housing market at a crossroads. After years of rapid appreciation, the pace has slowed. Properties now linger longer on the market. Inventory levels are up. But instead of heralding a correction, these trends may indicate a more fundamental recalibration — one where the market is no longer defined solely by rapid migration and growth.
“Altogether, the data suggest Florida’s housing market may be transitioning from a story of rapid growth and migration to one defined by affordability strain and recalibration,” said Hannah Jones.
If that transition deepens, the consequences could reshape the state’s economy. As Jones warns, “If current homeowners feeling the ‘Sunshine Squeeze’ begin to sell in larger numbers, those dynamics could intensify further, putting downward pressure on prices and altering the state’s real estate landscape.”
The Search for Solutions
Policymakers are paying attention. From Tallahassee to local city halls, leaders are scrambling to address the affordability issue before it escalates into a broader economic downturn. Proposals include expanding workforce housing programs, offering property insurance reforms, and incentivizing new home construction that targets middle-income buyers rather than luxury markets.
But even with reforms, the scale of the problem may exceed quick fixes. Insurance costs, in particular, are tied to global factors — reinsurance markets, hurricane risk, and climate exposure — that are largely beyond the control of state policymakers.
Meanwhile, Florida’s population continues to grow, straining infrastructure, utilities, and services. As long as demand remains high, prices are unlikely to fall significantly.
Sunshine, but at a Price
Florida’s affordability crisis doesn’t mean the state has lost its appeal. For many, the lifestyle still outweighs the costs. The weather, beaches, and lack of income tax remain powerful draws. But as more residents express frustration, a once-unquestioned narrative — that Florida is the easy, affordable dream — is being replaced by a more complicated reality.
The Sunshine State, it seems, has entered a new phase in its long economic story. It’s still a land of opportunity and beauty, but also one where even the sunniest dreams now come with shadows.
