By Chief Editor Alexandra V. Morton
November 8, 2025
The Boom That Burned Too Bright
For years, Florida was the poster child of America’s pandemic-era migration story. Its cities were flooded with capital, its suburbs filled with transplanted New Yorkers, and its beaches glittered with the promise of a new financial frontier dubbed “Wall Street South.”
But in 2025, that sun-soaked dream is showing cracks. According to Erin Sykes, chief economist and founder of SYKES Properties, “Living and working in Florida is like being in a toxic relationship.”
Just two years ago, she says, agents and developers were “being love-bombed and told how great we were.” Now, she adds, “We’re being told, ‘Oh, you’re too expensive,’ and kind of being discarded.”
Sykes’ comments, made during a panel interview at the ResiDay conference hosted by ResiClub, capture the mood of a market suddenly uncertain about itself. The state’s housing scene—once a symbol of boundless demand and runaway appreciation—has entered what Sykes calls “withdrawal,” a hangover after the high.
From Frenzy to Flatline
Data back her up. Florida home prices have fallen 5.4% year-over-year, marking one of the steepest regional slowdowns in the country. The broader market, she says, is “flat” or even “heading downward,” though still well above pre-pandemic levels.
The irony, of course, is that Florida homeowners aren’t necessarily poor for it. Many saw their property values explode during the pandemic. In Palm Beach County, for instance, home values have jumped as much as 200% in just a few years. Against that backdrop, Sykes argues, a single-digit price correction “is nothing when your house has appreciated 25% or more.”
Still, the shift feels different this time. Florida’s economy and identity have been tied to real estate for decades. Every slowdown carries emotional weight—because housing isn’t just business here. It’s the state’s bloodstream.
The Hangover Phase
Sykes describes Florida’s cycle succinctly: “boom, bust, and burnout.” The state is now squarely in the burnout phase.
The market’s tone has changed from euphoria to exhaustion. Inventory is up. Sellers are offering concessions. Agents who once fielded a dozen offers in a weekend now count themselves lucky to get one. “We’re seeing discounts of 5%, 10%, even 20% off list price,” Sykes notes.
And yet, it’s not a free fall. “Rather than being the boom up here and the bust way down here like we saw in 2008 and 2009,” she said, “the waves are becoming flatter.” Florida’s real estate market isn’t collapsing—it’s recalibrating.
The Condo Conundrum
Perhaps nowhere is the shift more visible than in the state’s vast condominium market, long a pillar of its coastal lifestyle. But Sykes says condos are now “really what has been driving down the Florida market.”
She points to two key problems: age and regulation. Following the tragic 2021 Surfside condo collapse, new safety mandates have forced older buildings to undergo costly structural inspections and repairs. Many owners are now facing six-figure special assessments just to keep their properties compliant.
“The glut of aging condos is a major drag,” Sykes said. “For many buyers, especially retirees on fixed incomes, it’s simply too risky or too expensive.”
Meanwhile, the single-family home segment remains resilient, buoyed by families and out-of-state buyers who still crave private space. “People want their own yards, their own walls,” Sykes observed. “That part of the market is doing well.”
The Split Personality Market
Florida’s current housing story isn’t just about prices—it’s about contrasts.
“It’s like having multiple personality disorder,” Sykes joked. “You can be in a neighborhood where homes are sitting for 100 days, and five miles away, something goes for over asking in 48 hours.”
Those jarring differences aren’t unique to Florida. Across the U.S., real estate markets that overheated during the pandemic are now cooling, while others—especially in the Northeast—are heating back up.
“I’m watching two Americas diverge in real time,” Sykes said. “Florida’s in withdrawal, but the Northeast is back in the game.”
The Northeast’s Comeback
Nowhere is that more apparent than in New Jersey’s Monmouth County and mid-Long Island, where Sykes says bidding wars have returned.
“In these commuter suburbs, it’s like 2021 all over again,” she explained. “We’re seeing multiple offers, limited inventory, and buyers waiving contingencies.”
That resurgence might surprise those who assumed the remote-work revolution had permanently diminished the appeal of the New York metro area. But as offices refill—if not five days a week, then at least two or three—the gravitational pull of the Northeast has reasserted itself.
Many buyers who left the region for Florida are now facing a dilemma: stay and ride out the turbulence, or head back north to familiarity, proximity to family, and more stable price trends.
The Great Divergence
What’s unfolding is a tale of two housing realities.
In Florida, the post-pandemic boom is cooling into a plateau marked by price cuts and oversupply in certain segments. In the Northeast, pent-up demand and a limited housing stock are reigniting competition.
Sykes attributes this divergence to psychology as much as economics. “During the pandemic, Florida was freedom, fresh air, and no state income tax. It symbolized escape,” she said. “Now, with costs up and insurance headaches mounting, the fantasy has worn thin.”
The comparison to a “toxic relationship” is apt. “Just like in one,” she said, “at first it’s intoxicating. Then reality sets in.”
Wall Street South and Its Limits
Florida’s ascent as a financial hub—sometimes called “Wall Street South”—was one of the pandemic’s most unexpected developments. Hedge funds and private-equity firms set up offices in Miami and Palm Beach. Developers raced to accommodate them with luxury condos and glass-fronted towers.
That migration “turbocharged Florida’s boom,” Sykes said. “It created real jobs, yes, but it also inflated expectations.”
Many of those high-earning arrivals pushed luxury demand to unsustainable levels. When interest rates rose and the easy-money era ended, the imbalance became clear.
Now, even as construction cranes still dot the skyline, the tone has shifted from celebration to caution. “We’re still seeing pre-selling of new-construction condos continue apace,” Sykes said, “but the market feels different. It’s more selective. People are thinking twice.”
A Market of Contradictions
Florida’s housing economy is full of contradictions that make it difficult to categorize neatly. Prices are down—but only slightly. Inventory is up—but so is migration. Luxury remains strong—yet mid-range buyers are squeezed.
The sense of “flatness” Sykes describes may be the most accurate reflection of the moment. “Florida, you have to always take with a grain of salt,” she said. “It’s a cyclical market, always has been. It rises faster and falls faster.”
But this time, the swings seem gentler, suggesting the market may be maturing—or, at least, stabilizing after the feverish highs of 2021–2023.
Lessons from the Last Crash
Observers can’t help but recall the crash of 2008, when Florida’s overleveraged housing market imploded. Yet Sykes insists the current environment is different.
“In 2008 and 2009, we had a collapse driven by bad lending and speculation,” she explained. “Now, what we’re seeing is a normalization after a historic surge.”
That normalization is painful for agents who thrived during the frenzy. It’s also unsettling for homeowners who got used to watching their property values rise month after month. But it’s not systemic collapse.
“This is what a hangover looks like,” she said. “It’s uncomfortable, but it’s healthy.”
The Condo Time Bomb
Still, one segment bears watching: older coastal condos.
The combination of rising insurance costs, stricter safety regulations, and massive repair assessments is pushing some condo owners to sell at steep discounts. Developers, meanwhile, are eyeing those aging buildings as teardown opportunities.
“There’s going to be a generational turnover of Florida’s condo stock,” Sykes predicted. “That’s both a challenge and an opportunity. The new product will be safer, more efficient—but it’s going to come at a premium.”
For buyers hoping for bargains, that’s mixed news. Prices on older units may soften, but new construction remains expensive, keeping overall affordability in check.
Florida’s Next Chapter
If Florida’s housing market is a relationship, it’s not ending—just entering therapy.
Sykes believes the state’s fundamentals remain strong: population growth, tax advantages, and lifestyle appeal. But the pandemic fantasy of endless appreciation has faded. “You can’t go up 30% a year forever,” she said. “That’s not real life.”
Instead, Florida may be settling into a more sustainable rhythm—still vibrant, but less fevered.
“Everyone needs a breather,” she added. “This pause isn’t failure. It’s balance.”
The Broader Picture
Florida’s correction fits into a larger national pattern: pandemic-era hotspots cooling while overlooked regions rebound. The South and West, which absorbed much of the migration surge from 2020 to 2022, are seeing moderation. The Northeast and Midwest, once written off, are experiencing relative stability.
That rebalancing reflects both interest-rate sensitivity and simple human behavior. After years of upheaval, Americans are rediscovering their pre-pandemic priorities—family proximity, job access, and community—over short-term lifestyle moves.
Beyond the Sunshine
Florida’s housing story has always been about more than numbers. It’s about perception—the enduring tension between paradise and reality.
Sykes’ metaphor of a “toxic relationship” resonates because it captures the emotional whiplash of a state that can enchant and exhaust in equal measure. For every sun-drenched success story, there’s a frustrated homeowner facing insurance shocks or delayed closings.
But perhaps that’s what makes Florida timeless: its contradictions. It can be both opportunity and ordeal, boom and bust, dream and disappointment—all at once.
“Florida always comes back,” Sykes said near the close of her ResiDay session. “It’s dramatic, it’s volatile, but that’s part of its charm. You just have to know what you’re signing up for.”
