Right now, the U.S. housing market is stuck in a strange place. Prices are high. Rates remain elevated. Buyers feel pressured. Sellers feel frozen. As a result, many Americans feel trapped in the middle.
According to celebrity broker and SERHANT. founder Ryan Serhant, this moment represents something deeper than a normal cycle. Instead, he believes the country has entered what he calls a “nobody’s market.” In other words, it is no longer a buyer’s market or a seller’s market. It is something new and far more uncertain.
Meanwhile, at the same time, Serhant says the luxury sector is experiencing the biggest lifestyle-driven housing shift in 50 years. Therefore, while everyday buyers struggle, wealthy Americans are rewriting the rules entirely.
This article breaks down what that means, why affordability is quietly becoming America’s biggest economic risk, and how regional trends are reshaping where money is moving next.
What Is a “Nobody’s Market,” and Why Does It Matter?
Traditionally, housing cycles swing between buyers and sellers. However, that balance has broken.
According to Serhant, the biggest reason is simple:
Mortgage rates are high and they are not meaningfully coming down.
As a result, buyers can no longer stretch as easily. At the same time, sellers no longer want to give up 3% mortgages to move. Therefore, transactions slow. Meanwhile, inventory stagnates. Consequently, both sides feel stuck.
Simply put:
- Buyers feel locked out
- Sellers feel trapped
- And the market loses momentum
Because of this, Serhant calls today’s environment a “nobody’s market” instead of a normal cycle.
The Silent Affordability Crisis Is the Real Threat
However, the biggest concern is not just housing.
According to Serhant, the real danger is what he calls the “silent affordability crisis.” In other words, everyday Americans are falling behind not only on housing, but also on:
- Groceries
- Insurance
- Transportation
- Credit card balances
- Basic cost-of-living expenses
Meanwhile, wages are not keeping up with these increases. Therefore, more households are relying on debt just to survive at previous lifestyle levels.
As a result, strain builds quietly over time. Then, eventually, it breaks.
Serhant warned that if rates stay elevated longer, household stress may quietly become the biggest economic story in America.
While Most Americans Struggle, the Luxury Market Is Booming
At the same time, something surprising is happening at the top.
According to Serhant, luxury real estate is rebounding strongly, especially in New York City.
In fact:
- His firm surpassed $1 billion in closed and in-contract sales in just the first 35 days of 2025
- Homes priced above $4 million experienced their strongest four-week stretch in years
- The feared post-COVID NYC exodus is now officially over
Even more importantly, Serhant says:
“The streets of New York City are busier than they were pre-COVID.”
Therefore, while affordability collapses for many, capital is surging back into elite markets.
The Biggest Housing Shift in 50 Years: The “Portfolio Lifestyle”
However, the most important shift is not about prices.
Instead, it is about how wealthy Americans now live.
According to Serhant, ultra-wealthy buyers are no longer choosing one primary residence. Instead, they are building portfolios of cities.
In his words:
“They’re not just buying one home now, they’re buying three.”
This shift is driven by several forces working together:
- Hybrid and remote work
- Strategic tax planning
- Lifestyle flexibility
- Easier access to second-home markets
As a result, wealthy buyers are spreading their lives across multiple states instead of anchoring to one city.
The New “Portfolio Cities” Where Money Is Moving
Instead of Florida and Wyoming alone, new regions are now rising.
According to Serhant, some of the fastest-growing portfolio destinations include:
- New Hampshire, for tax-friendly East Coast living with four seasons
- Washington, D.C., for long-term political and global stability
- Rhode Island, emerging as a Northeast luxury migration zone
- Las Vegas, driven by explosive tax-based relocation
At the same time, New York City itself has re-entered the portfolio rotation due to its cultural gravity and renewed economic pull.
How This Shift Connects to Broader Regional Trends
Interestingly, this luxury portfolio movement mirrors broader changes taking place across U.S. housing.
For example, in Northern California, real estate performance is no longer uniform:
- Luxury housing continues rising, while mid-tier homes struggle
→ This is clearly visible in this breakdown of why Bay Area luxury homes keep rising while mid-tier housing slips behind
Meanwhile, affordability pressure is reshaping rental markets:
- Gilroy’s average rent recently hit the $2,000 level, showing how pressure pushes outward from major metros
→ You can see that full shift here: Gilroy rent trends show rents hitting $2,000 on average
At the same time, massive infrastructure and development projects are accelerating future pricing pressure:
- The Bay Area is now seeing mega-projects reshape long-term housing supply and job centers
→ Full analysis here: 5 mega projects reshaping the Bay Area real estate landscape in 2025
Therefore, what Serhant describes at the luxury level is actually part of a broader structural realignment happening across multiple tiers of the market.
Why the Middle Class Is Getting Squeezed the Hardest
Unfortunately, the portfolio lifestyle benefits only those with excess capital.
Meanwhile, middle-income households face a brutal combination of pressures:
- High interest rates
- Rising insurance costs
- Stagnant wages
- Limited inventory
- Heavy debt dependence
As a result, many buyers remain permanently in “waiting mode.” They cannot afford to buy. However, they also cannot benefit from rising appreciation.
At the same time, sellers refuse to give up ultra-low mortgage rates from prior years. Therefore, mobility collapses.
This lock-in effect is what sustains today’s nobody’s market.
NYC’s Rebound Sends a Signal to the Entire Country
Perhaps the most important signal from Serhant’s interview is this:
The supposed collapse of elite urban markets never truly happened.
Instead:
- Capital paused
- Migration temporarily shifted
- And then money returned stronger than before
Therefore, if New York can reverse so fast, other elite metros may follow similar rebound paths.
SERHANT.’s Business Model Signals the Next Era of Real Estate
Beyond the market itself, Serhant’s company vision also reflects the next phase of real estate business.
Instead of a traditional brokerage model, SERHANT. now blends:
- Media and content
- Technology
- Luxury brokerage
- Global marketing reach
As Serhant put it:
“Our company is the engine, and I think America is our runway.”
At the same time, his Netflix show “Owning Manhattan” Season 2 is expected to reflect:
- Bigger listings
- Bigger personalities
- Higher stakes
- And deeper emotional volatility
This signals that modern real estate success increasingly depends on branding, attention, and digital reach, not just listing inventory.
The Big Picture: Two America Housing Markets Now Exist
Ultimately, Serhant’s insight reveals something critical.
America no longer has one housing market.
Instead, we now live inside two separate systems:
- A financialized luxury market driven by global capital and portfolio living
- A constrained affordability market driven by wage pressure and debt growth
These two markets now operate under completely different rules.
Final Takeaway: The “Nobody’s Market” Is Not Temporary
This moment is not just a pause.
Instead, it is a structural reset.
- Rates are staying higher
- Mobility remains frozen
- Affordability is breaking
- While luxury capital adapts and multiplies
As a result, the traditional definition of a “housing cycle” no longer fits. The next decade will not be defined by booms and busts alone. Instead, it will be shaped by who is able to participate at all.
And according to Ryan Serhant, that divide is already here.
Very interesting blog